Avoid the bull whip effect through digital supply chain management

The bull whip effect is a logistics' nightmare, yet common: sudden demand spikes deplete stocks unexpectedly. Retailers are wringing their hands and asking their supply chain for quick delivery. Production is being massively increased and after a long delivery delay, retail shelves are well stocked again. But demand may suddenly collapse and the product spoils en masse in the logistics warehouses. The good news is: none of this has to be the case. Discover bull whip effect's root causes, serious impacts in the supply chain, and effective data management prevention strategies for your company.

1. What is the bull whip effect, and how does it occur?

The bull whip effect is the amplification of demand fluctuations along the supply chain from retail to production. This means that small changes in end customer demand can lead to large changes in production.

Example of the bull whip effect

Imagine a retailer sells an average of 1000 units of a particular product per month. If the retailer sees an increase in demand to 1200 units, he is likely to order more products to avoid stock-outs and a loss of sales, for example 1500. The wholesaler receives the order and also wants to prepare for the higher demand. He considers that other retailers who are his customers may also increase their order volume for this product. That's why he increases his next order batch in production to 3000.

If other middlemen and production companies are involved in the supply chain, this effect increases with each intermediate stage. Because each stage of the supply chain wants to build up an additional buffer as demand increases. This is to ensure that they are prepared for a continued increase in demand and resulting delivery delays. It can happen that the retailer only sees a slightly increased demand of 1200 instead of 1000 units. However, at the beginning of the supply chain, production orders increase to 10,000 units without an actual demand for them.

2. Possible causes of the bull whip effect

The bull whip effect is caused by several factors that lead to fluctuations in demand and inefficient supply chains:

• Lack of communication in the supply chain is one of the main causes of the bull whip effect. If the individual participants do not know what product quantities the end customer needs, over- or under-production will occur because the actual requirements cannot be calculated correctly.
• False expectations and inaccurate forecasts regarding end customer demand can also lead to a bull whip effect. Then there is a high risk that they will either order too many or too few quantities of a product. For example, this often affects those products whose demand depends on the corresponding weather conditions.
• Batch orders and highly fluctuating order volumes are also triggers of a bull whip effect. They make it difficult for supply chain participants to adjust their order and production quantities. If a participant orders a large quantity of a product, it will be difficult to adequately reduce the production and order quantity in a timely manner when demand falls again.
• Order quantity optimization: Companies often order in larger quantities to obtain better conditions or to minimize transport and storage costs. This leads to uneven ordering behavior. That’s increases demand volatility and is difficult for other supply chain participants to predict.
• Price fluctuations: Companies may order more than they need to take advantage of price changes, such as discounts. This also creates uneven demand and contributes to the bull whip effect.

All of these factors distort actual demand along the supply chain and ultimately result in inefficiencies, additional costs and frustrated customers. This makes it all the more important to identify these causes and anticipate them in good time. That is the only way to ensure an efficient and sustainable supply chain that also anticipates current demand.

3. Impact of the bull whip effect

If the causes of the bull whip effect are not anticipated in time, this has serious consequences for everyone involved in the supply chain:

• Overproduction and Overstocking: In response to inaccurate or inconsistent orders, companies often produce more products than are needed. This leads to overproduction and thus to overstocking, which causes additional storage and capital tie-up costs. In the case of perishable goods, there is even a risk of total loss.
• Stock outs and missed sales: The bull whip effect can also lead to stock outs when companies produce or order too little to meet demand. Stock outs lead to missed sales, dissatisfied customers and potential loss of market share.
• Inefficient transportation and storage capacity: The uneven demand associated with the bull whip effect leads to inefficient use of transportation and storage capacity. This leads to higher costs and wasted resources. Companies have to provide more capacity to cope with the high fluctuations.
• Increased costs: Overall supply chain costs increase due to a combination of overproduction, stock-outs and inefficient use of resources. These costs must be passed on to the end customer, which leads to a deterioration in competitiveness.
• Deterioration in customer satisfaction: Stock outs, delayed deliveries and higher prices associated with the bull whip effect lead to an overall deterioration in customer satisfaction and result in a long-term loss of trust.

To avoid these serious effects, it is crucial that you identify the causes of the bull whip effect and develop strategies to combat it. This is the only way you can maintain an efficient and sustainable supply chain over the long term, even in the face of strong fluctuations in demand.

4. Transparent communication avoids the bull whip effect

The key factor in avoiding a bull whip effect is transparent communication along the entire supply chain. Since all participants promptly and transparently exchange their data, everyone always has precise knowledge about the actual quantities of products needed. Furthermore, all parties involved can more easily identify the actual causes of a sudden increase in demand. Did more end customers actually buy the product? Or is the retailer increasing its order quantity once because of a discount or fear of delivery delays? That transparent exchange of data enables all participants in the supply chain to make more accurate forecasts. This significantly reduces the likelihood of a bull whip effect.

Based on the example above, this means: If everyone in the supply chain knows exactly that the retailer at the end of the chain only needs 1200 product units, everyone can calculate their own buffer much more precisely.

To make it all work, digitizing the supply chain requires a holistic approach. One that seamlessly integrates everyone in the supply chain. AI in logistics and machine learning are also important tools that will soon take a central place in supply chain management and take it to the next level.

5. The edbic data hub as a platform for transparent supply chain management

The optimal platform for such an infrastructure is our in-house data hub edbic. Because edbic can bring together (almost) all data formats from a wide variety of sources, process them, convert them into the desired format and output them to any storage location. This provides all actors in a supply chain with the following decisive advantages in supply chain management.

Transparent communication:

edbic enables you to exchange data without media disruption between different software applications, machines and your business partners. That leads to improved communication and transparency. This is because everyone involved has the same up-to-date data and can therefore make better decisions. A variety of setting options and role distributions allow you to precisely determine which data is visible to whom. This means that only the information necessary for optimal decision-making is provided at each point in the supply chain.

Efficient data integration:

The seamless integration of different data sources and formats creates a uniform, consolidated database. This gives you and your partners a better overview of the actual demand. It also helps to minimize the risk of a bull whip effect along the supply chain.

Automation and process optimization:

edbic automates data processing and integration, increasing efficiency and reducing workload. Automation eliminates manual errors, resulting in more accurate forecasts and thus also reducing the bull whip effect. With edbic, automation processes are modular and can be adapted to your company's needs. You don't need any programming skills.

Monitoring and process visualization:

Continuous monitoring and visualization of the processes ensure a high degree of transparency. It enables your company to recognize and react to fluctuations in demand more quickly. This reduces the likelihood of a bull whip effect occurring. Our edpem (Process Event Monitoring) is the optimal supplement for visualizing processes. edpem enables close monitoring of operational risks along the entire supply chain across companies. This allows corrective measures to be taken immediately if intervention is necessary.

Scalability and Flexibility:

edbic is flexible and scalable. It can adapt to the changing needs of your business and supply chain. This enables quick reactions to dynamic market conditions. That also reduces the likelihood that demand fluctuations develop into a bull whip effect. Thanks to the easy scalability of the processes, edbic also grows easily in every growth phase of your company.

Advantages and possible uses of edbic and edpem in the supply chain at a glance

The combination of the edbic data hub and the event monitoring tool edpem from compacer offers a number of valuable advantages and possible uses for the supply chain:

• Optimal transparency along the entire supply chain, as all data is displayed in the correct format where it is needed.
• Great reduction in manual data entry work through automation.
• Improved planning and forecast accuracy due to a uniform data situation.
• Continuous and cross-company monitoring along the entire supply chain enables cost reductions by optimizing inventory levels and delivery times.
• Flexibility and scalability ensure that edbic can adapt to the dynamic requirements of your company at any time.

Overall, by using edbic and edpem, you and your partners receive a robust data infrastructure that simply and actively supports you in preventing a bull whip effect from occurring in the first place.

Get to know real use cases here in which we have sustainably optimized our customers' logistics with the help of edbic and edpem:

• Pharmaceutical company uses edpem as a real-time monitoring tool for tracking goods
• European airport uses edpem for real-time monitoring of ground handling services
• Data and integration platform edbic replaces a logistics group’s legacy system

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